Review: Rates and Ratios

Gather the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting, Data For All Arkansas Cities, All Crimes

https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/Local/OneYearofData.cfm

Fill in the gaps of the population data using the 2014 Census Figures from this table:

PEP_2014_PEPANNRES

Question #1: Using the four corners test, describe

—The number of cities

—How is the crime rate organized?

Question #2: Sorting.

Fayetteville is ranked what statewide for total property crime because of which type of crime?

Question #3: Calculations

Calculate a violent crime rate per 1,000 people and a property crime rate per 1,000 for all Arkansas places

Answer these questions

–The place with the highest violent crime rate in Arkansas in 2014 is xxx with a violent crime rate of xxx per 1,000

–The place with the highest property crime ratein Arkansas in 2014 is xxx with a property crime rate of xxx per 1,000

–Fayetteville’s property crime rate  is XXX per 1,000, PLACING It #  statewide.

–Fayetteville’s violent crime rate is xxx per 1,000, PLACING It #  statewide

Rates and Ratios

Statistical Fine Point: Weighted Average

We can’t accurately average ratios that are based on different denominators, unless we calculated a weighted average.

Instead: Calculate a total rate for the state.

Nicar Exercises: Rates_and_Ratios

Data: CA_discipline

 Numbers in the Newsroom

Sarah Cohen, Math Diva

Sarah Cohen’s “Numbers in the Newsroom” is a classic in journalism numeracy. She is a Pulitzer-winning journalist at The Washington Post, a former Duke University professor and now a data journalist at The New York Times.

That’s why we read her book.

* Limit yourself to 8- 12 digits, including dates such as 2012, in a single paragraph.
–This allows us to stress the most important numbers
–Simplify using rates, rations or percentages. “One in four” = ratio or rate. “Forty percent” = ratio or rate. 235 deaths per 100,000 is another.

*Memorize some common numbers on your beat: Population of Fayetteville. Population of Arkansas. Population of the U.S. Per capita income Arkansas and U.S.

*Round off! Unless you’re dealing with really small numbers, decimal points may not be meaningful. “I’m a big fan of rounding,” Cohen said.

* To make a very small number more understandable, divide it into 1. For example, .0081 is the proportion of the U.S. population who die every year. 1/.0081 translates to 1 in every 124 Americans die each year.
* If you have a story filled with numbers – and not people — it needs to be really, really short.

* Portion of whole – For example, at the time of the Million Man March in 1995, a turnout of 1 million black men would have represented 1/12th of all the black men in the country at the time.
Review: —Review Numbers in the Newsroom, through p. 25

Relative Risk

“Black applicants are denied mortgages at twice the rate of whites with similar incomes.”

if 20 smokers per thousand contract cancer, and yet non-smokers have a cancer rate of only 10 per thousand, the relative risk of smoking is 2.

“More than” or “less than” = computer difference between the smokers, an extra step

Example:

Relative Risk

Exercise: We know Blytheville has the highest crime rate per capita. What is the relative risk in Blytheville versus Fayetteville?
 1) Blytheville residents have a violent crime rate XX times that of Fayetteville
2) Blytheville residents are XXX times more likely to be victims of violent crime than people in Fayetteville.

Homework

Finish pivot table exercises with WorldBank data

Read Numbers in the Newsroom through page 25.