The trends in Arkansas crime and employment data suggest a negative correlation between economic health and crime rates.
Arkansas localities – towns or cities – with high crime rates have low median family incomes and high unemployment rates. Conversely, localities with low crime rates have high median family incomes and low unemployment rates.
This trend constitutes an negative correlation between Arkansas crime rates and economic health, not necessarily a causal relationship.
Trends in Arkansas crime and employment data were found in analyzing the 20 localities with the highest crime rates and the 20 localities with the lowest crime rates from 2012 and 2015.
The factors used to determine economic health are the locality median income in relation to where it falls, above or below, the state median income, and the locality unemployment rate as compared to the state median rate.
Generally, high-crime localities are economically unhealthy, and low-crime localities are economically healthy, according to the trends in Arkansas from 2012 and 2015.
A locality with a high crime rate will have a low median income and a high unemployment rate, according the trend. Conversely, high median income and low unemployment rates, would suggest economic health and a low crime rate.
By these standards, there are some localities that are neither healthy nor unhealthy. These localities are either above the state median, or below the state median in both economic measures. These localities typically comprise a smaller percentage of the total.
In 2015, 55 percent of high-crime cities were economically unhealthy – meaning they simultaneously had low median incomes and high unemployment rates – and 20 percent were economically healthy, with high median incomes and low unemployment rates. The 2015 economically healthy, high-crime localities were Little Rock, Jacksonville, Fort Smith and Caddo Valley.
The remaining 25 percent of high-crime localities in 2015 were neither healthy nor unhealthy. They had either high median incomes and high unemployment rates, or low median incomes and low unemployment rates.
In 2012, 65 percent of the high-crime localities were economically unhealthy, and 15 percent economically healthy – these healthy, but high-crime locations were Little Rock, Jacksonville and Texarkana.
The remaining 20 percent of 2012 high-crime localities had high median incomes and high unemployment rates. There were no localities with low median incomes and low unemployment rates, possibly because most high-crime unemployment rates at this time were above the state median.
Of the total 2012 high-crime localities, 85 percent were above the median unemployment rate, whereas 65 percent of 2015 high-crime localities were above the median unemployment rate.
Also in 2012, 70 percent of low-crime localities were below median unemployment rates, whereas 60 percent of 2015 low-crime localities were at or below median unemployment rates.
These numbers would seem to suggest that unemployment rates were a bigger factor in 2012 than in 2015.
Of the 2015 low-crime localities, 50 percent were economically healthy and 40 percent were unhealthy. The economically unhealthy, low-crime localities in 2015 were Luxora, Swifton, Bull Shoals, Lakeview, Hamburg, Cave City, Rison and Warren.
Two 2015 localities, Bay and Gentry, with low income and low unemployment, comprised the remaining 10 percent.
2012 had 40 percent economically healthy low-crime localities, and 15 percent economically unhealthy. These economically unhealthy, yet relatively crime free locations were Luxora, Eudora and Star City.
The localities that were neither economically healthy nor unhealthy, comprised 45 percent of the total 2012 low-crime localities. The majority of these middle localities had low median income rates and low unemployment rates.
Overall, the majority of the high-crime and low-crime rate localities followed the trend, with the exception of low-crime localities in 2012, which were more likely than the 2015 localities to have low income and low unemployment rates.
The two localities that remained outliers in 2012 and 2015 were Little Rock and Luxora. Little Rock maintained a high crime rate, a high income and low unemployment rate for both years, while Luxora had the second lowest crime rate in 2012 and overall lowest crime rate in 2015 with a low income and high unemployment rate for both years.
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